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Unread 05-21-2016, 08:01 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by bobthecockroach View Post
Yeah, this does make things tricky, but I'm sure someone out there has enough of a vested interest in these numbers to figure out a way to crunch them.

Lee's point is valid... She is very, very millennial, so her long-term rediscovery prospects might be lower than someone like the Beatles, but I think she'll pass them in sales before she stops making music, so I doubt that matters for my prediction.

Taylor Swift's biggest strengths, as I see it, are her skillful control over her own career and her understanding of her audience / generation. As she gets older, her fans will too, and if the past is any indication, she will again perfectly read what music they are wanting and perfectly coordinate things to deliver it.
Bob touched on her ability to deliver what her fans seem to want. I think one of her greatest assets is her ability to write catchy songs, and that will evolve with her as well. Getting married, having children, all those things may give her a creative boost, that will create new songs, that her buying public is right in tune with (they are getting married, having children).

She also has the ability to call the shots in her career, and losing some streaming income is not a major concern at all.

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Unread 05-21-2016, 10:00 PM   #32
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At 26 she's just entering her musical prime. I think she'll only get better as she edges into her early to mid 30s.
That's kind of the big question. Can she mature and keep her audience into her 30's? Few artists have successfully done so.

There are few examples to compare her career to when your'e talking about that level of success.
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Unread 05-21-2016, 10:06 PM   #33
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How do we define "sales" in the streaming era? Is that going to remain a useful metric? When the Beatles were putting out new music, your options for listening to them on your own schedule were pretty much limited to buying records, so things were more quantifiable. The music industry is shifting away from that model, Swift's stand-off with Spotify notwithstanding.

On the other hand, the global music market has become more interconnected and more overseas sales are available. That works out well for Swift, but it makes the markets not really as comparable.
Exactly.

It's extremely unlikely that she will get anywhere close to the Beatles in sales because she makes music that appeals to the demographic that streams music. In fact I doubt anyone will ever pass the sales numbers of Michael Jackson or The Beatles. People consume music differently now.
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Unread 05-21-2016, 10:26 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by to_be_released View Post
In principle, I agree.

In cynicism, I feel like mid 30s to 40s her looks based appeal will wane, and with it her popularity. We liked our male ageing rockers, but we don't tend to let female stars age as gracefully. Hopefully she manages to buck that trend.
I don't know that's so much a gender than as a genre thing. Pop stars tend to make music which appeals to teenagers. Those teenagers tend to quickly turn into 20-somethings and their musical taste evolves. If you're a in a rock band, the music tends to appeal to a wider age range and address themes which age better.

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True, but I don't imagine that all of her young fans will continue to stick around once she's older (ten to fifteen years from now) and doing something noticeably different.
Yep. She started young enough that she's been able to ride the young pop star wave a long time. But she's probably only has one or two more albums before 30....possibly marriage and kids...
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Unread 05-21-2016, 10:33 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by bobthecockroach View Post
Taylor Swift's biggest strengths, as I see it, are her skillful control over her own career and her understanding of her audience / generation. As she gets older, her fans will too, and if the past is any indication, she will again perfectly read what music they are wanting and perfectly coordinate things to deliver it.
Up to this point though her audience has remained young since she is still herself young. Soon they will transition to stages of life which purchase fewer albums.
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Unread 05-23-2016, 11:13 PM   #36
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One thing I didn't see mentioned is the world's population is quite a bit bigger than it was int he 60's--hat would also factor into the equation.
More potential fans--which makes what teh Beatles did all the more impressive (& others from long ago as well)
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Unread 05-27-2016, 07:52 AM   #37
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Playing/Songwriting wise she is an amazin musician. Will I pay to hear her perform any of them, NO
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Unread 09-25-2016, 08:53 PM   #38
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There are over twice as many people alive today to buy recordings than their were during the Beatles tenure of active recording. Of course someone selling to over twice as big an audience can eventually sell more of anything.
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