[Ax]

Originally Posted by Shift

Anybody know what the word is on Strasburg? I have him in the the low rounds in a keeper league and wonder if he's playing this year.

I know they say that with the surgery he had the throwing arm is actually stronger for it... though most pitchers need a year or two to get back to where they were.

If he does pitch at all it'll be at the VERY end of the year, which wouldn't make much sense to risk injuring him so he can pitch for just a month and some change. I suspect they'll take that time as a chance for extended rehab so that he's on top of his game when he comes back.

Of course he may come back stronger, and he may never be the same. The surgery is much more successful now than it used to be and far less invasive. It's taking less and less time to rehab from it now, with some pitchers coming back after only 9 months where it used to be a guaranteed 10 and more probable 12. But there's always cases like Rick Ankiel.

Strasburg, however, is young and will likely bounce back, at least physically. Mentally at that young of an age, you never know, of course from the interviews I saw with him, he seemed pretty down to earth so it probably wont affect him.

[thesteve]

Rick Ankiel was such a weird case. It's hard to say that Tommy John wasn't successful for him. He caught the yips (or whatever mental issue plagued him) a couple years before going under the knife.

The only way I see Strasburg back as a starter in 2011 is if the Nationals are in a position to be a playoff contender. The original outlook on Strasburg was 12-18 months, and I would be surprised if he doesn't take most of that time. He might be back at the very end of 2011 just to get some time in as a reliever if the Nats are their usual selves. That being said, if the rehab is successful and has similar effects in terms of conditioning that it has had for other pitchers, he's going to be living in the 98+ zone deep into games.

I think the long term plan for the Nats will be to have Strasburg back in the starting rotation in 2012 with Bryce Harper possibly up in mid-2012 as a reserve. I expect Harper to definitely join the roster at the start of the 2013 season, barring some major breakdown in his playing abilities.

[Ax]

I actually heard some announcers a while back asking if it wouldn't be a good idea to get Tommy John before you even start in the majors and get it over with... I'm sure it was in jest, but I couldn't help but wonder if it might actually be worth it.

[thesteve]

Originally Posted by Ax

I actually heard some announcers a while back asking if it wouldn't be a good idea to get Tommy John before you even start in the majors and get it over with... I'm sure it was in jest, but I couldn't help but wonder if it might actually be worth it.

The real benefit, from what I understand, isn't the surgery itself, but the rehab. If a player wants the benefits of TJ without the surgery they can just take a 12-18 month intensive rehab assignment. Haha.

[Ax]

Originally Posted by thesteve

The real benefit, from what I understand, isn't the surgery itself, but the rehab. If a player wants the benefits of TJ without the surgery they can just take a 12-18 month intensive rehab assignment. Haha.

From what I understood on their position is that non-professional coaching when a player is younger and the rigors of playing in all the traveling leagues when they're in their developmental stages cause damage over time which will for the large majority of pitchers lead to torn ligaments and require TJ. Therefor they said, why not have the ligaments repaired, go through the rehab, and then not have to worry down the road.

[thesteve]

Originally Posted by Ax

From what I understood on their position is that non-professional coaching when a player is younger and the rigors of playing in all the traveling leagues when they're in their developmental stages cause damage over time which will for the large majority of pitchers lead to torn ligaments and require TJ. Therefor they said, why not have the ligaments repaired, go through the rehab, and then not have to worry down the road.

Ah...so basically a preventative surgery. I don't see that going over well with the current structure of baseball. If I'm an 18 year old phenom, there's no incentive for me to have a career altering surgery unless there's some guaranteed money on the table, and if we're giving guaranteed money to a kid that's going under the knife, that just seems really weird.

So yeah, I get what they're saying, I just don't see it as being viable.

[Ax]

Originally Posted by thesteve

Ah...so basically a preventative surgery. I don't see that going over well with the current structure of baseball. If I'm an 18 year old phenom, there's no incentive for me to have a career altering surgery unless there's some guaranteed money on the table, and if we're giving guaranteed money to a kid that's going under the knife, that just seems really weird.

So yeah, I get what they're saying, I just don't see it as being viable.

I don't think anybody was seriously suggesting it, it was kind of a satirical conversation. It just seemed relevant to the thread... :shrugs:


Back on the Nats though:

Originally Posted by thesteve

I think the long term plan for the Nats will be to have Strasburg back in the starting rotation in 2012 with Bryce Harper possibly up in mid-2012 as a reserve. I expect Harper to definitely join the roster at the start of the 2013 season, barring some major breakdown in his playing abilities.

It's weird to say this, but I think in the next few years they may be serious contenders. Strasburg, Harper, Werth, and now a possibility of Derrek Lee... Never thought I'd see the day...

[thesteve]

Originally Posted by Ax

I don't think anybody was seriously suggesting it, it was kind of a satirical conversation. It just seemed relevant to the thread... :shrugs:

As nutty as some things are these days, I wouldn't be surprised if some GM tried to make it a team policy.

[Ax]

Originally Posted by thesteve

As nutty as some things are these days, I wouldn't be surprised if some GM tried to make it a team policy.

I don't know if that's legal... I'm sure if they tried MLB would shut that idea down. I'm pretty sure the player's union would go nuts too.

[thesteve]

Originally Posted by Ax

I don't know if that's legal... I'm sure if they tried MLB would shut that idea down. I'm pretty sure the player's union would go nuts too.

Haha...didn't say they would get away with it, just that they would try.

I think the Nats have been on the cusp for a couple years now. They're a statistically average team playing in a very competitive division. I don't know how much of an upgrade Werth is going to be over Dunn (I know it's been predicted to be significant). I think they will improve in 2011 and really be in place to make a push in 2013.

[earlessdog]

Looks like J.P Arencibia is going to get the starting catcher position for the Jays, most likely anyway. I doubt he'll live up to his historical MLB debut last year, hitting a home run on his first ever major league pitch, as well as another home run later on that game.
But I think he'll develop into a decent catcher, i'm excited to see him play.

I'm hoping that Jesse Litsch doesn't get a position on the pitching rotation, at least until he has at least proven that he can pitch again in the minors. It was stressful watching him pitch last year.

Also, looks like the Evil Empire is going to have a pretty good bull pen, picking up Soriano . . .

[Art]

The Giants have said that they are giving Brandon Belt a chance to win a starting job in Spring Training at first base or left field. Will Clark says Belt has a better swing than he did. Could be interesting.

[thesteve]

The Padres are apparently in talks with Chad Qualls...

If he can revert to pre-2010 Chad Qualls he could be a good pickup. The current Chad Qualls on the other hand...

[Ax]

There's some rumor the Braves are grabbing Andruw Jones again as a backup outfielder (or in case of Chipper not recovering, full time left fielder)... Now if he continued to resurge like he did early last year...

[Art]

Ladies and gentlemen, Pablo Sandoval.