[slap_j]

Originally Posted by roscoestring

I hope I'm wrong.

Perhaps you can rest a bit easier now:

Wikileaks cables reveal China 'ready to abandon North Korea' | World news | The Guardian

[redbaron]

I honestly think that China realizes that it's in their best interest to allow S.Korea to attempt reunification before they support a N.Korean war effort.

Realistically, the existence of N.Korea has done nothing for the people other than impoverish them while their southern neighbors successfully traded with the west and built tremendous wealth. Pyongyang's biggest hotel never even got finished, and it was started what, decades ago?

They have Kim Il-Sung preserved on display, the way that you can see Ho Chi Minh, Mao ZeDong, V.I. Lenin displayed though, because that's important. Some sort of weird communist tourist attraction.

edit: it appears that the hotel may be completed soon, even though it's sat unfinished, with no work done from 1992-2008 Ryugyong Hotel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[JerryLove]

China seems to have the reasonable fear of a large refugee influx should the Korea's go to war.

Not to mention that a nuclear war on their doorstep sounds bad.

Plus they will have a close US ally sharing a border.

And Korea would be bigger competition than just S.Korea.

And, of course, their current plans are working. They don't want uncontrolled change.

[BillSPrestonEsq]

Originally Posted by BAND

Sorry to both of you. I'm just saying, Asians tend to run short, and tend to be small people in general. but there are always exceptions to the rule. I knew a 250 pound 6'7" Chinese man who could wrestle me to the ground any day of the week.

Excuse my steriotypes

I used to think this. I once heard a 6 foot 4 Chinese guy discussing with a 6 foot 7 Chinese guy the height of a folder for dropping papers off at Seminary. Both were convinced that they being Asian (and thus short, they did not see the irony there at all) if they could reach it, of course the taller white people could as well. I pointed out that as a white guy I could barely reach it and the English woman in the room at 4 foot 11 could not even touch it.

In my experience, folks from Northern Asia tend to run rather tall. The North Koreans I have known. (2, so admittedly a very small sample) were definitely substantially shorter than their South Korean counterparts. They also just looked older for their age so I am guessing the famine had a lot to do with it. I know several folks whose folks are from Northern China and they are quite tall. At the largely Korean Seminary I went to, I realized the whole Asian = short stereotype was laughable. Either that or I really am that short.

To be on topic

Kim Jong Il scares me. He seems just crazy enough to do something terrifyingly stupid that would sacrifice hundreds of thousands of lives. China is a decent check, but he feels like a global wildcard to me. He seems like he might do anything because he feels like it and that scares me. Impulsiveness is a scary thing in a man with large weapons.

[Ridley's Own]

Originally Posted by BillSPrestonEsq

Kim Jong Il scares me. He seems just crazy enough to do something terrifyingly stupid that would sacrifice hundreds of thousands of lives. China is a decent check, but he feels like a global wildcard to me. He seems like he might do anything because he feels like it and that scares me. Impulsiveness is a scary thing in a man with large weapons.

I don't think Kim is actually in control at this point. Even with a paranoid, ever-so-slightly irrational regime like N. Korea, there's a pattern that can be established and understood. This is a pretty big break with that pattern. My guess is that either A). Kim is incapacitated, but not dead, so the succession is all screwed up and this is a way for the army to assert itself; B). Kim is dead, and this is his successor's way of saying "I've got the balls to run this place;" or C). Someone on the ground made an oopsy and they're covering for the mistake. The running thread from the analysis I've seen is that, in any case, Kim Jong Il isn't in control of the situation.

[BillSPrestonEsq]

Originally Posted by Ridley's Own

I don't think Kim is actually in control at this point. Even with a paranoid, ever-so-slightly irrational regime like N. Korea, there's a pattern that can be established and understood. This is a pretty big break with that pattern. My guess is that either A). Kim is incapacitated, but not dead, so the succession is all screwed up and this is a way for the army to assert itself; B). Kim is dead, and this is his successor's way of saying "I've got the balls to run this place;" or C). Someone on the ground made an oopsy and they're covering for the mistake. The running thread from the analysis I've seen is that, in any case, Kim Jong Il isn't in control of the situation.

The madman lost control. I am not sure that is any more comforting. I'm not sure it is any worse than Kim Jong Il or could be, but...

it moderately scares me.

[JerryLove]

There is potentially a lot of internal politicking going on. N.Korea sells itself to its people as a world power that stands up to the oppressors. This kind of posturing and sabre rattling is a common cycle: though it seems a bit more ratcheted up than in a long time.