[nolidad]

Originally Posted by Epaphras

What are everyone's thoughts on this?

Although the candidate that was robbed of the election was an integral part of the revolution 30 years ago, he seems to have moderated since then.

Here is a great photo-diary of the events of last weekend. Photos 1 and 17 are particularly poignant for me (women involved in the protest) as well as 27 (reminds me of the Tienanmen Square tank guy).

I have been to Beijing twice near the time of Tianamen massacre. Things in Iran are moving downward. The grrand ayatollah and the council of Guardians want Mahmoud and they shall get them. Today an announcement was issued that teh govt. will put down the protesters. They either needto go allthe way or back down lest they die . An Iranian in my church used to be a leader4 in Saavak and says this will end very bloodily if the protesters persist. Not a fun time to be in Iran if you yearn for democracy.

[slap_j]

Originally Posted by nolidad

Not a fun time to be in Iran if you yearn for democracy.

Here's one place I see a big gap between U.S. citizens and our government. I think most citizens do want democracy in Iran. Our government, on the other hand, obviously didn't.

[JerryLove]

There seems to be a lot based on assumptions.

Is it possible that he really did win by a landslide?
Is it possible that the opposition is being unreasonable (why did they turn down selective recounts anyway?)
Is it possible that the opposition is vying to wrest control by force of protest?

What should Iran do differently (other than, perhaps, not kick out the press)?

[nolidad]

Originally Posted by JerryLove

There seems to be a lot based on assumptions.

Is it possible that he really did win by a landslide?
Is it possible that the opposition is being unreasonable (why did they turn down selective recounts anyway?)
Is it possible that the opposition is vying to wrest control by force of protest?

What should Iran do differently (other than, perhaps, not kick out the press)?

1. It may be possible but at least to the western mind, a 62-38 margin seems hard to accept given the large rallies for mousavi.

2. Selective recounts when ordered by the council of guardians are naturally untrustworthy.

3. Quite possibly they are trying a revolution France, the U.S., and other nations were fromed by the same principle- good or bad. I do not approve of overthrowing a government but I can have a sense of empathy for the folks there. Living under sharia law and under the mullahs and imams and ayatollahs can be very very harsh.

[JerryLove]

Originally Posted by nolidad

1. It may be possible but at least to the western mind, a 62-38 margin seems hard to accept given the large rallies for mousavi.

38% is around 11 million people. Are the rallies larger than that?

2. Selective recounts when ordered by the council of guardians are naturally untrustworthy.

Then all solutions would be untrustworthy. I believe the opposition was offered say in what to recount.

3. Quite possibly they are trying a revolution France, the U.S., and other nations were fromed by the same principle- good or bad. I do not approve of overthrowing a government but I can have a sense of empathy for the folks there. Living under sharia law and under the mullahs and imams and ayatollahs can be very very harsh.

Iran itself was formed the same way in 1979 by the parents of today's protesters.

[nolidad]

Originally Posted by JerryLove

38% is around 11 million people. Are the rallies larger than that?

Then all solutions would be untrustworthy. I believe the opposition was offered say in what to recount.

Iran itself was formed the same way in 1979 by the parents of today's protesters.

As for the rallies-- the western mind understands polling and rallies (or at least the way they are presented. in the media) If 10,000 are active ralliers then they are but a small portion of those who supported mousavi. Mahmoud may have won the election in the vote count, but because it is a semi closed society-- a lot of questions are raised

As for all solutions-- to many in the west because the council of guardians are the absdolute rulers and appoint the candidates who are allowed to run- yes almost any solution would be cast with doubt inth ewest (except one that overthrew the mullahs)

Yes and this revolution /crack down may be far bloodier.

[slap_j]

Originally Posted by nolidad

Yes and this revolution /crack down may be far bloodier.

Has anyone else seen the video floating around the internet of the Iranian girl (named Neda) who was shot by a Basij soldier? I won't link it here. If you're interested it will be easily found with google. It's quite awful to watch. Felt like someone punched me in the stomach. I read that her fate has reinvigorated the opposition to Ali Khamenei.

[thesteve]

Originally Posted by JerryLove

38% is around 11 million people. Are the rallies larger than that?

Indeed...reminds me of all of the Ron Paul hype before the '08 primaries. It seemed like every political rally you heard about was for Ron Paul. Being near a university, I saw Ron Paul stuff all over the place...yet when it came to the elections I don't think he picked up more than 25% of the delegates for any given state and something like 1% of the delegates in total.

[JerryLove]

Originally Posted by nolidad

As for the rallies-- the western mind understands polling and rallies (or at least the way they are presented. in the media) If 10,000 are active ralliers then they are but a small portion of those who supported mousavi.

Let's say that there were 100,000 protesters and they were a mere 1% of the supporters. That would be 10,000,000 votes.

Official records give him more than 11,000,000 so where's the contradiction.

Mahmoud may have won the election in the vote count, but because it is a semi closed society-- a lot of questions are raised

I may have won the election. Do you have any evidence he actually did? Otherwise all we have are suspicions and all we should be looking to do is find out if we are right or wrong.

It's far more likely that Bush stole the 2000 election, where he lost the popular vote and the vote in Florida was in dispute.

As for all solutions-- to many in the west because the council of guardians are the absdolute rulers and appoint the candidates who are allowed to run- yes almost any solution would be cast with doubt inth ewest (except one that overthrew the mullahs)

Which makes rigging the election seem silly. Why not simply disallow the running of any credible opposition.

I'm not sating they didn't rig it. I don't know. But it's far from certain that they did.

[nolidad]

Originally Posted by JerryLove

Let's say that there were 100,000 protesters and they were a mere 1% of the supporters. That would be 10,000,000 votes.

Official records give him more than 11,000,000 so where's the contradiction.

I may have won the election. Do you have any evidence he actually did? Otherwise all we have are suspicions and all we should be looking to do is find out if we are right or wrong.

It's far more likely that Bush stole the 2000 election, where he lost the popular vote and the vote in Florida was in dispute.

Which makes rigging the election seem silly. Why not simply disallow the running of any credible opposition.

I'm not sating they didn't rig it. I don't know. But it's far from certain that they did.

1. I agree that Mousavi may have really only gotten 11,000,000 votes- just that with all the secrecy of Iran society it makes it hard unless of course western media skewed coverage to make it appear Mousavi was more popular than he really was. This is possible also

2. I agree we should try to find out- BUT, the council has declared Mahmoud the winner and the election over--only crackdowns to follow if people continue to protest. Which is their right to quell uprisings.

3. Many countries appear to rig elections (though it is hard to prove) so they give the appearance of free democratic elections.-- Fidel usually won reelection with over 95% of the popular vote every election. It is agreed that is far from certain-- but a 62-38 margin is highly unusual in "free" societies. It would be nice if they had let former Pres. Carter in to monitor elections.

4. Bush lost the popular vote but definitely won Florida- that states election was the most recounted in American history. All the independent recounts after the election all showed Bush won- so he got the electoral college votes and became president- not the first time it happened and probably wont be the last.