Stock Market

6strings21frets · 10-14-2008, 07:08 AM

On Friday, the Dow Jones went under 9,000. Can the markets recover by the end of the month or so?

EDIT
Also, I'm doing the ASX Stock Market game, so I'll report the market whenever I can for you guys.

Bryan · 10-14-2008, 09:20 AM

I wish I could discuss this here.

**Chrysostom** · 10-14-2008, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bryan

I wish I could discuss this here.

Can you write anything in emails or PMs? (If so, would you write me one, off the record as a friend having a conversation and not in any way giving advice in anything related to your professional capacity?) I don't know the details of your compliance issues.

I'm lucky that in my position I can do nearly anything I want...

Hopeful · 10-14-2008, 04:44 PM

I believe it will someday. The question is "when". A lot of favorable factors have to fall into place for it to return to its heyday.

normajean777 · 10-14-2008, 05:40 PM

Well seeing that the markets had record one day gains on Monday (and in Canada, today because of Thanksgiving yesterday), I'd say yes. Of course thats just in response to the bailouts and stuff, but it still means we have economic strength. But there is much political instability driving the markets quite sporadically. If Obama wins they will likely fall, and if McCain wins, they will likely remain par or rise (over the next year or 2).

***Art*** · 10-14-2008, 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by normajean777

If Obama wins they will likely fall, and if McCain wins, they will likely remain par or rise (over the next year or 2).

What is your reasoning behind this?

**bravesfan007** · 10-14-2008, 07:29 PM

I voted no just because I don't think they'll recover before the end of the month. They may, I just don't have faith in the markets at this point and think the bottom is still to come.

Bryan · 10-14-2008, 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by normajean777

Well seeing that the markets had record one day gains on Monday (and in Canada, today because of Thanksgiving yesterday), I'd say yes. Of course thats just in response to the bailouts and stuff, but it still means we have economic strength. But there is much political instability driving the markets quite sporadically. If Obama wins they will likely fall, and if McCain wins, they will likely remain par or rise (over the next year or 2).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Art

What is your reasoning behind this?

especially since historically, the market always does better when a democrat is in office than when a republican is in office.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bravesfan007

I voted no just because I don't think they'll recover before the end of the month. They may, I just don't have faith in the markets at this point and think the bottom is still to come.

there isn't a single person with any kind of respectable reputation who thinks the markets will recover before the end of the month

**bravesfan007** · 10-14-2008, 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bryan

there isn't a single person with any kind of respectable reputation who thinks the markets will recover before the end of the month

I know, which is why I voted the way I did as the OP asked if we thought the markets would recover by the end of the month.

**Chrysostom** · 10-14-2008, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bryan

especially since historically, the market always does better when a democrat is in office than when a republican is in office.

The newest Nobel Laureate in economics thinks that Obama can/will be a massive help. Now, to my knowledge most economists think he's become a bit of a partisan sell-out recently, but no matter the case there are some economists who think Obama would not only not be bad, he would be good. (Of course, Krugman was also one of the loudest voices supporting partial nationalization.)

And, to put my cards on the table, I believe that capitalism with low govt regulation is both extremely good and unmatched in terms of efficiency and productivity (leaving aside any judgments on the relative importance of those things), and I could get a massive list of economists to sign a statement to that effect, but I don't think McCain is especially economically savvy. Merely in terms of their tax plans, I think McCain would be much better for the efficiency and productivity of the US economy in the long run, but I couldn't say in terms of the short run. However, in terms of the whole package, I don't think I have any reason to think McCain will lead to a big market incline and Obama and big market drop.

normajean777 · 10-14-2008, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Art

What is your reasoning behind this?

I think there is a possibility that McCain could make the tax cuts of 2003 permanent (or actually I don't think they can be renewed, just remade), while Obama would likely increase taxes...

***Art*** · 10-14-2008, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by normajean777

I think there is a possibility that McCain could make the tax cuts of 2003 permanent (or actually I don't think they can be renewed, just remade), while Obama would likely increase taxes...

And why would that affect the stock market?

normajean777 · 10-14-2008, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Art

And why would that affect the stock market?

How do taxes not affect the stock market? When the tax on capital gains and dividends raises from 15% to 35% do you really think people are gonna to be more encouraged to buy more stocks? Or would more activity and thus higher returns come from the low 15% rate. . .?

TravisR · 10-14-2008, 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bryan

I wish I could discuss this here.

Why can't you?

Sorry, maybe I'm a bit in the dark on something.

Bryan · 10-14-2008, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TravisR

Why can't you?

Sorry, maybe I'm a bit in the dark on something.

Because I am a licensed broker and my company's communication policy prohibits me from posting on the internet in discussion boards or blogs regarding what I think the market will or will not do. I've probably said too much on this forum in the past, but I'm not too worried about it. It's not like I am posting in my company stock's yahoo message board. Any communication with the public has to be approved by my company's compliance department (though, technically I have the license to approve myself, company policy doesn't allow it and I want to keep my job).